I’m gonna focus on one thing in particular (and hopefully destroy them on it): biased polls and a horrifying abuse of statistics.

If there’s anything that you learn in a basic data management or statistics course, it’s that surveys can be easily engineered to be biased; to produce intentionally skewed results.

That’s what FOX does.

Anger poll

Questions

Take the following poll question as an example:

Does the ‘Reconciliation’ Gambit Make You Angry?

What does that question do, in terms of data collection?

• Sampling bias. The question is clearly targeted at those who feel strongly about the issue, because those are the vocal minorities interested in persuading others of their view. Now, since FOXNews.com is a clearly conservative news source, the visitors to the site will, logically, not include many liberals who would have voted negative to this poll question. As a result, the sample is not representative of the population, producing skewed results.

Choices

What did that question look like on their site?

How biased are the choices?

“You decide”: are the choices biased?

• Yes, yes of course.
• Unsure, but if you’re asking, doesn’t that mean it’s biased?
• No, but maybe it’s biased.

Obviously I’m satirizing their choices. If you read the wording of each option, TWO of the options support the data that FOX wants to collect.

Since when did unsure agree with yes?

Moreover, since when did no contradict no?! “No, it doesn’t make me angry, but they’re still using a loophole.” That’s definitely a biased choice.

The “Other” Choice

All right, so this is probably the choice that someone would pick if they, like me, disagree with all the options and their wording. What if I think “it doesn’t make me angry because it’s not a loophole, it’s a procedure?”

The problem with that is, other is substantially underrepresented when FOX airs results or makes a big deal of them. Right now, 94% say it makes them angry, and that’s the only data they care about when they’re publicizing the results.

Who cares that some extremist decided to write a lengthy explanation of their choice under “other”? That’s not a statistic that matters.

So the “other” choice is just there to give the poll a guise of fairness.

The Extraneous Text

Everything they’ve posted in front of the poll question is designed to steer voters towards one option. For the question above, they asked:

President Obama unveiled his revised health care reform plan on Wednesday. The buzz word is “reconciliation,’ a rarely used legislative maneuver designed to resolve budget differences but one that could also be used to push through the Democrats’ health agenda by a simple majority vote. Are you angry that Obama and the Dems are resorting to using “reconciliation”?

I added emphasis to the key manipulating words above.

I think it’s plainly obvious that words like “maneuver”, “resorting to”, “agenda” (as in hidden agenda) have subtle connotations that the voter’s subconscious mind picks up on.

UPDATE: How could I have forgotten to analyze the word “gambit”? The concise Oxford English Dictionary defines it as “an action or remark calculated to gain an advantage.” You tell me that isn’t a loaded question.

In Short…

That particular poll was biased. Let’s briefly critique another one.

Victory poll

Statisticians would shoot them for this one. Well, not as much as for the previous one.

The question is fine here (except for the ambiguous definition of the term victory), but the choices are terrible. Again, there’s the issue with the “Other (post a comment)” choice because it is far easier for someone to pick another option than to take the effort to write a comment — that choice basically means nothing.

Irresponsible or is it just me?

The “No” option is an exaggeration. 2700 pages, apparently, is a lie (or a gross exaggeration). The official H.R. 4872 (reconciliation) bill is 2310 pages, and the Senate bill previously passed by the Senate weighed in at around 2400.

Sampling bias

Again, this poll will not yield accurate results for three reasons (I’ll admit that they overlap):

1. The visitor demographic of FOXNews.com is largely conservative. This may not be the same proportion as in all of the United States.
2. Furthermore, through the efforts of liberals who are attempting to get their voice heard, young Twitter users are flocking to this poll to vote “Yes”. THESE votes will, again, fail to reflect the population, which is perhaps why this is labelled “not a scientific poll” by their own admission.
3. Lastly, the unsure option is quite unimportant in this poll because those who are unsure, generally, are not the vocal participants in these kinds of forums. A lot of Americans are unsure because they don’t know all of the facts, and this poll simply cannot deal with that part of the population that is underrepresented.

How to spin the results

Currently, “Yes” and “No” are nearly tied at 47% and 49% respectably. What would happen if “Yes” had the majority vote?

Given the wording of the choice, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to claim that “over 95% of respondents believe that the bill is flawed”.

After all, even the “Yes” voters have to concede that it’s “not perfect”.

What is this. Yes, I’ll readily concede that it’s not perfect, but that’s because I like the Canadian system better. There might only be one way to be perfect but infinite ways to be wrong or imperfect, and putting that there doesn’t help anyone determine how to get better health care reform. Moreover, it deprives voters of the chance to vote “Yes, it’s awesome.”

What can we do about this?

Nothing. If “freedom of the press” and “freedom of expression” are interpreted in such an unlimited way, any of these ugly tactics can be defended as their view on things.

Freedoms come with responsibilities, of course, and it is irresponsible for this kind of polling and the kind of news reports that FOX News airs to claim to be “fair and balanced”. Boycotting FOX News doesn’t really work, because one would be leaving FOXNews.com with all the conservatives who would love to dominate their polls.

“Fair and balanced” might well be a joke; it would be a perfect sarcastic tagline for FOX.

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Technology

Windows has entered a new era

The decade—indeed, the century—began with Windows 2000, which I consider the first great version of the operating system. XP was the version that brought widespread success, and people just seem to refuse to upgrade; even today, almost three quarters of the computers on the net are on XP.

Despite the dismal failure of Windows Vista, it too brought change, which was followed by the enhancements of Windows 7. Compare my desktop today to the ugly screens of a decade ago:

Apple deserves an honourable mention for the ground-breaking work they’ve done on the Mac, elevating it to a newly trendy status.

Portable media players have completely changed

A decade ago, CD players and tape-based Walkmans were still the norm for ‘portable’ audio players. The iPod, launched in 2001, entirely changed the game. (I suppose this and the iPhone were the “comeback of the decade”.) It was no longer a device that played removable media. That was followed by thousands of other portable media players, to which the public generally refers inaccurately as “MP3 players”, reflecting the popularity of the 15-year-old MP3 format that has also been notorious for illegal file sharing (see below).

Cell phones and mobile devices have become ubiquitous

These devices used to be ugly, huge and heavy objects. As we move into 2010, cell phones have become more compact (usually this means thinner and lighter) and more powerful.

In China, about 739 million people have cell phones; that’s more than there are Internet users in China (which is about 360 million).

Mobile devices have become truly powerful. The iPhone, purportedly the most popular cell phone of 2009, is one of the biggest platforms for software development. And it has a touch screen. RIM’s BlackBerry, initially launched in 1999, is the most popular smartphone among business users.

Ordinary people begin to embrace ultra-portable netbooks for lightweight computing. The move to mobile is probably the most noticeable trend in end-user gadgetry in this decade.

Illegal file sharing has emerged

I don’t personally think of torrenting itself as a major problem, and it’s difficult to sympathize with big companies when the RIAA is being stupid. At the same time, it’s pretty easy to see how having hundreds of movies, TV shows and music albums distributed through torrents can take away from earnings for content producers. (Some dispute this and argue that those who pirate movies and TV shows are those who will purchase related memorabilia or boxed sets.)

In any case, it is virtually undisputed that new technologies have made distribution of such content much easier. In the previous decade, pretty much everyone was on dial-up Internet and only the students at universities with blazing connections were able to do it (think about the controversial Napster).

The best known site for illegal content

YouTube happened

YouTube and hundreds of other video sites have revolutionized the way we watch video. What used to be distributed on tapes and discs has moved onto the Internet in a way that allows ordinary folks—not videophiles or geeks—to share their multimedia with the world.

YouTube is also the icon of the so-called Web 2.0, which is oriented on user-generated content. (Flickr deserves an honourable mention for high quality pictures, just like Vimeo for high class videos.) It has made it possible for teens with crazy personalities and high-pitched edited voices, artists who post music videos, and crazy dancers who travel the world to reach out to a vast audience. Above all, it’s a legitimate new form of entertainment.

Following the success of online video, major content producers began to license music for online distribution (think Pandora or Last.fm, not to mention Internet radio) as well as movies and TV shows (think Hulu).

Click here to view the embedded video.

Open source projects have become worthy challengers

More than a decade ago, in 1996, the Apache HTTP server became the most popular web server in use; today it has surpassed 100 million web sites served.

Mozilla Firefox, having risen out of the ashes of the Netscape browser, although not the most widely used browser in the world (it’s 2nd), is apparently used by 32% of the market analyzed by StatCounter.

While I still use Microsoft Office, OpenOffice.org is also a notable alternative to the proprietary and dominant office suite, especially on non-Windows operating systems.

And then there are the programs used by geeks, like the Eclipse IDE or Aptana Studio, that are depended upon. (For all of you multimedia geeks, there are open source programs that do the job much better than their closed source counterparts; think about Handbrake, VLC…)

Businesses can now also depend on open source projects like Sugar CRM that build their revenue model around support and premium features.

News has moved onto the Web

My primary news source  now is the Web. Google News is one of my frequently visited sites, as it is a fantastic aggregator of headlines. I subscribe to e-mail summaries from the Toronto Star and breaking news alerts from the New York Times. ArsTechnica and TechCrunch are my sources for technology-related news, and occasionally Mashable and Neowin. Those pesky short links in the tweets of people I follow also make for engaging news articles.

Wikipedia happened

At the beginning of this decade, I was researching in books and print encyclopedias. The conventional wisdom today of “just Google it” didn’t work so well then. And certainly there wasn’t a Wikipedia for the wealth of human knowledge that it now contains.

Today, I can near-instantly read up on the history of Wal-Mart or read up on the Beslan school hostage crisis and its media coverage. If I truly need it, Wikipedia connects with Wikisource, the free library and Wikibooks where I can read Anna Karenina online (and I wouldn’t, because Constance Garnett’s translations are really lacking).

It’s truly amazing that the sum of all human knowledge can be collaboratively archived and updated through the likes of Wikipedia. Perhaps they need your support this holiday season!

What do you think? Did I miss out on something big that happened in this decade in the world of tech? Write a comment!

(I did, however, intentionally exclude social networking—i.e. Facebook—because I don’t think it’s been revolutionary in any major way. Sure, it has connected people in new ways, but it’s still relatively fresh and more time is needed to see where it goes. Similarly, I omitted touch because it hasn’t entirely caught on yet; tablet PCs were a dismal failure a few years ago and I haven’t yet seen their widespread success. Furthermore, I omitted cloud computing because it doesn’t directly affect a large number of people. Feel free to disagree with me in the comments.)

Worldly Matters

I think September 11, 2001 marked the start of a new era of warfare and international affairs. The terrorist attacks, inasmuch as they have been abused to justify ill-advised battles, did shock the world.

I recommend you head over to the Big Picture where you’ll be dazzled by splendid photos of this decade, including commentaries on the World Trade Center attacks and war. And dozens of other things like natural disasters (remember Katrina, or the Sichuan earthquake?), the Beijing Olympics, and terrorist attacks in London.

2009 has been a fantastic year. I look forward to the future.

Happy holidays and all the best in 2010!

No, I’m not dead. My last post was published quite a while ago, but I’m still alive and well — for the most part.

Concerning the human swine flu, it’s important to note that hype and paranoia may not really be that far from the truth. It is a serious health risk, and the World Health Organization recently issued a level 4 alert.

At least the City of Toronto has no known swine flu cases thus far.

Stay safe and be careful!

Technological Expectations for 2009

Things we hope to be released in 2009:

Kindle 2.0 (from Amazon)

The Amazon Kindle is a wireless reading device from Amazon that many people in the United States are already enjoying as an alternative to physical newspapers, novels, and documents. Amazon is expected to deliver a new version of the device, possibly in a smaller/more compact form factor. Additionally, there have been many complaints about the keyboard and the page navigation keys, all of which may be addressed if a Kindle 2.0 is designed. There’s also been discussion about a textbook edition that could be exactly what students need to avoid lugging around huge, cumbersome, heavy textbooks. I would certainly appreciate e-textbooks; wouldn’t you?

An improved consumer Mac desktop (Apple)

Though the iPod (and iPod Nano), iPhone, and Macbook series have all seen massive improvements, Apple has not changed the iMac significantly except for faster processor speeds and more memory. What about changes that the consumer can see, feel, or save? As of now, their top-of-the-line 24-inch iMac at 3.06 GHz costs a whopping $2,299 CAD. Cheaper prices would help as much as product improvements.

Windows 7 (Microsoft)

Admittedly, its release date could be any time between mid-2009 to 2010, but we’re hoping for it as early as possible, because the earlier it gets out, the better the PC experience will be, and the more competition there is for the consumer desktop. New features like touch, improved user-friendly interface for all the applications (even WordPad and Calculator), and sensors are sure to distinguish this Windows version from any previous one. Perhaps it will even match Mac OS X in terms of aesthetics and usability in day-to-day tasks (the fun ones, like making movies and managing photos, not the productivity/business things). The SuperSite for Windows has more to read about Windows 7.

Windows Live Wave 3 (Microsoft)

This entails a new version of the Windows Live apps — Messenger, Mail, Photo Gallery, Writer, and newer additions such as Movie Maker. Windows Live Wave 3 also involves improvements to Microsoft’s online services (such as Spaces, Windows Live Mail, and FolderShare) that are already beginning to take place. Also, don’t forget that Microsoft announced plans to have Office in the cloud — Word-like, Excel-like, and PowerPoint-like applications that run inside a browser. Add that to their existing Office Live Workspace and certain business solutions, and we see Microsoft adopting the Cloud. Add Azure as a platform initiative, and we see Microsoft trying to lead the way again in terms of platforms. Once again, Paul Thurrott’s SuperSite for Windows has more to read.

Mac OS X Snow Leopard (Apple)

Snow Leopard is just a bit of an improvement on Leopard, and will add enhanced 64-bit support and other backend changes. Though it’s not particularly exciting, I’m sure it has many Apple fans hyped up.

Taking a little bit of a break from the content, you can subscribe to this blog by e-mail for free to get updates whenever a new post of interest is published:

Technological Hopes for 2009

How about the things we imagine, or hope to have (but probably won’t have)?

A consumer-affordable OLED television (Sony)

Just because OLED technology is in active development doesn’t mean that this will necessarily happen in 2009. As of the current year, an OLED TV from Sony costs over $2000, which makes it an unlikely choice for the average consumer, particularly given the recent economic crises.

A netbook from Apple

The Asus Eee PC that I have is ‘nice’, but I’m sure Apple could do a better job. As it stands, netbooks lack usability, given their tiny keyboards, tiny trackpads, small screens (and relatively miniature screen resolutions), limited processing power, and limited memory. If Apple decides to enter this field, they would face the same challenges, but could certainly design a better keyboard, a more usable trackpad (based on the one used on the new Macbooks), and invariably a better operating system than the customized Linux distribution or Windows XP.

For all we know, this concept is in the works.

Virtual Reality: Gaming and more

This was actually brought up by an acquaintance recently, who noted that video games are already becoming increasingly realistic, and that a large proportion of teens don’t distinguish between the unreal and the real anyhow. Virtual reality would make things seem even more realistic, but then we face the combined dilemma of: (a) limited computing power — only the newest computers have even a chance at a virtual simulation with a good resolution and frame rate, and virtual reality would be extremely difficult to implement in an affordable gaming console; (b) more time spent gaming; (c) some gamers would not distinguish between life and virtual reality — what if they practice killing in virtual reality and take that to real life?; (d) how would injury be simulated? — in a sniper game, for instance, how would a game provide physical feedback that you’ve just been shot?

Faster Internet connections in Canada!

This is just wishful thinking. While Japan and Northern Europe enjoy some of the fastest connections in the world (measured in gigabits per second), we in North America (more so in Canada than the United States) have to live with 5–20 Mbps connections over cable or DSL. At least large population centres in the U.S. can get FiOS; we don’t even have that.

What we need is competition. If Rogers Communications loses its (almost) monopoly over cable Internet, and if Bell Canada didn’t dominate telephone and DSL so much, maybe we’d see impressive improvements each year. What I want is affordable, 50+ Mbps connections — and I hope to avoid DSL.

3D holography

We’re still a long way from the interactive, life-like holodecks of Star Trek… but that doesn’t mean we can’t try. Projection-style holography is still very much possible today, and if technology moves forward the way we’d like it to, we’ll hopefully have three-dimensional images soon.

Practical applications of consumer-oriented holography, and that means outside the business or Pentagon or military, include the luxury of changing decorations in a split second, to have a ridiculously advanced visualizer for iTunes (or whatever media player you happen to be using), or maybe some futuristic gaming machine.

Is it too early to ask for a transporter or a replicator? (As far as I know, neither of those are likely within the next 50 years.)

Widespread hybrid/hydrogen automobiles

While hybrids are already becoming popular, the truly efficient and pollution-less automobiles, the hydrogen car, is still out of reach in most of the world. The hydrogen infrastructure just isn’t there; there are nearly no hydrogen fueling stations in most of the United States and probably none in Canada. I would like to see this technology mature.

Societal Changes in 2009

What’s going to shift in our society?

Increasingly-radical Christianity

In the past few years, we’ve always been talking about “radical Islam”, but a developing trend is “radical Christianity”. I’m making the most of my freedom of expression to note the increasing extremism of many denominations on social issues such as gay rights, abortion, immigration, war, trade, marijuana, and — believe it or not — health care. During the recent American presidential elections, we have seen church groups involving themselves in campaigning for or against certain candidates; we’ve seen endorsements from some, such as Reverend Wright, and condemnations from others. We’ve seen Catholic churches adamantly oppose birth control of any sort, evangelical Christians fighting for “the sanctity of life” and “the traditional family”, and all-in-all, an increasingly alarming involvement of the church in daily life and politics.

Let’s talk about one issue, perhaps one of the biggest issues, of recent months.

California’s Proposition 8 sought to ban all gay marriages in the state, and was affirmed by 52% of the voters. Religious organizations on both sides added to the conflict. My problem with Proposition 8 and the faulty logic used by religious proponents (“we’re protecting our religious rights and values”) is that a ban, by definition, restricts rights, as Lawrence Lessig will tell you. If a church doesn’t want to marry gay couples, they don’t have to; it’s not like the lack of a ban forces them to carry out such an action, whereas the ban would force other religious organizations to turn away gay couples.

Religious groups are abusing the role of religion in people’s lives. I will openly admit to being atheist, but to attack my reasoning based on atheism would be an illogical, ad hominem attack. This argument comes not from my atheism, but rather my atheism comes from it.

Inevitable gay rights movement

We cannot deny that this is a huge issue that will be campaigned for and against. Given the attention dedicated to such matters in 2008, I believe it will continue to be a large problem in 2009, and may perhaps be addressed (either favourably and unfavourably) by certain judicial bodies.

Liberalization of the U.S. Supreme Court

Barack Obama’s successful bid for president places him in the powerful position of appointing Supreme Court justices. If he can appoint a sufficient number to swing the court to the left, we may see the court overturning previous rulings on abortion, and perhaps further precedents.

Continuing rise of Asia

Asian nations, specifically China and India, are poised in positions of massive economic influence. Whether they can continue that influence and dominate trade is a matter for their governments and businesses to decide. China, on one hand, may begin to loosen rules on privatization and employment, while India’s government may take action to improve conditions and the quality of life throughout their territories. The United States’ weak economy makes it doubly vulnerable to the lure of cheaper business with China and India.

An eye on space

Already India has sent an object to the moon. The development of the International Space Station is progressing nicely. Space shuttles are to be sold off. Satellites are being launched and destroyed.

Would it be too far-fetched to say that space is at least a concern for every developed nation’s government and people?

Personal Expectations for 2009

Now we move from the general into the specific; from the societal to the individual. In 2009, I hope to improve my relationships with others, to exemplify the best characteristics of humanity, and in doing so, to live by the dictates of philosophy. I make it my New Year’s Resolution(s) to be a better person: to care more about the lives and feelings of friends and acquaintances… to treat strangers as friends… to open myself to influences… to help others lead more meaningful lives… and to combat societal issues that threaten to destroy the peaceful ways of life we enjoy.

In 2009, I also hope to gain a wider and more active readership on this blog. You can help, by commenting on this post, by subscribing to the blog via e-mail or RSS, and by sharing my posts with your friends.

Contribute to Frederick or Frederick’s Timelog

It’s nearly the end of 2008, which means 10 months of content that has evolved to support a community of readers. You can contribute to me or the operation of this blog in many ways:

• giving me feedback and discussion by commenting
• sponsoring a post on this blog (see below)

You could purchase a sponsored post on the blog, either directly (by contacting me) or through PayPerPost. These sponsored posts could be made about your business, product or service, and would deliver you link juice, publicity, as well as traffic. Sponsored posts recover more than half of this site’s operating costs.

Thank you for your continued readership!

That having been said, enjoy this video of the American Vice Presidential debate yesterday evening, in case you missed it.

Click here to view the embedded video.

It has sparked outrage and has also made some feel that this “terrorist” is being treated fairly.

You should know, though, that Pentagon papers accidentally released in February of this year showed that even though Khadr was present during the firefight in which a grenade killed a U.S. soldier, there was no evidence they had which proved that he threw the grenade.

Watch and vote.

EDIT: apparently YouTube removed the interrogation video. Hmm…

It seems like Bush’s popularity is ever decreasing. With the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that the denial of habeas corpus to detainees at Guantánamo Bay is unconstitutional and that those prisoners have a right to challenge their imprisonment in the civilian courts, it’s no longer necessarily true that “the law doesn’t extend to Cuba”.

Though the rulings did not outlaw the prison outright, the rulings do somewhat approach the human rights issues that the U.S. is responsible for. And how has “Reporters Without Borders” reacted to this news? As of June 13, 2008, they haven’t, but still have half of their web site dedicated to attacking China and supporting the boycott of the Olympic games. Look at (click) this screenshot; do they even mention Guantánamo Bay?

Now, back on topic. This sort of decision is truly what the judicial branch of government is supposed to do: discuss the constitutional issues and re-think the policies of the executive and legislative branches. Unfortunately, Bush wants to bypass this ruling through an act of Congress.

And how does that make you feel?

Find more about this on Google News, subscribe to our feed, or write a comment.

Civil Liberties vs. National Security in a Post-9/11 World (ISBN 1-59102-234-7):
This is an excellent book that I started reading recently. It discusses various issues surrounding the U.S. government following the events of September 11, 2001. The major sections in this book include:

1. History of civil liberty issues in wartime (inc. an excerpt from another highly-recommended book, All the Laws but One)
2. Domestic surveillance and the USA PATRIOT Act
3. Racial profiling
4. Torture
5. “Enemy combatants” and the detainment of foreigners
6. Recent developments such as the Abu Ghraib prison scandal

More after the jump.

It’s not a biased book, but rather presents these contemporary issues by including arguments from both sides of each argument.

I haven’t finished it yet, but you can take a look on Amazon if you want to consider purchasing it.

By the way, I created the above picture in Photoshop by “enhancing” upon an existing cover image from Barnes & Noble. Find it on Flickr.

Many of us may be wondering, how could Obama possibly be elected to the White House with this less-than-rudimentary understanding of the world? Clearly, this is not an issue with Hillary Clinton, who has travelled to more than a hundred nations, or John McCain, who has decades of experience in politics and the military.

The answer isn’t that he is well-balanced. The answer isn’t that he was less involved in politics prior to his campaign.

The answer is simply that people are disregarding this sort of mistake. They don’t care that a presidential candidate doesn’t know of the political system of the second largest country in the world. They don’t care that this presidential candidate has an unrealistic view of American politics.

What they do see in Obama is:

• youth and energy
• inexperience
• “a [short] history of right choices”
• geek-friendly

He is definitely inexperienced, and that cannot be refuted by anyone on any side. How long has he been in politics? Only since the husband of Jeri Ryan (Seven of Nine on Star Trek: Voyager) lost when his divorce records with Jeri Ryan were involuntarily publicized. In other words, Obama’s sole opponent was involved in a scandal. In such a case, how could Obama have lost?

His short history of right choices doesn’t show that he will make more right choices in the future. This is an illogical connection which he is making, and which he is pushing to his supporters. Simply because he has made some right choices in the previous 5 or so years doesn’t mean that he will deal with the stresses of the Presidency, and does not demonstrate that he is qualified to lead the United States. Certainly, he isn’t the sort of person who would ordinarily be elected to the Supreme Official with Veto Powers.

But what appeals to a lot of younger voters is that he’s geek-friendly. He actually understands technology and the Internet, and supports the net neutrality argument. I’m not going to say much more about this.

You should listen to the LSAT Logic in Everyday Life podcast. A recent episode, “No ‘There’ There” includes analysis of the Spitzer scandal, Ferraro’s comments about Obama’s race, and also offensive remarks from Rev. Wright (with whom Obama is associated).